CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-28T23:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29415/-1
CME Note: High southern latitude CME visible in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption near AR 3591 (S35E10) with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2024-02-28T20:15Z. Opening/rising field lines and post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171/193. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 until the CME is almost out of the field of view due to a data gap 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T08:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-04T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 61.28 hour(s)
Difference: -15.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-02-29T19:30Z
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